The government's consumer price index being released Tuesday is expected to show that prices shot up 8.4% from 12 months earlier, according to economists surveyed by the data firm FactSet. That would mark the fastest year-over-year inflation since December 1981. And it would surpass the 7.9% 12-month increase in February, which itself set a 40-year high.
The escalation of energy prices has led to higher transportation costs for the shipment of goods and components across the economy, which, in turn, has contributed to higher prices for consumers. If the March price figures come in as expected, they will solidify expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates aggressively in the coming months to try to slow borrowing and spending and tame high inflation. The financial markets, in fact, now foresee much steeper rate hikes this year than Fed officials had signaled as recently as last month.
Economists generally express doubt that even the sharp rate hikes that are expected from the Fed will manage to reduce inflation anywhere near the central bank's 2% annual target by the end of this year. Tilley, Wilmington Trust economist, said he expects year-over-year consumer inflation to still be 4.5% by the end of 2020. Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, he had forecast a much lower 3% rate.
FJBiden