These are the most — and least — vulnerable housing markets if the U.S. heads into a recession

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If a major downturn hits the U.S. economy, homes in counties in New York City, Chicago, and Philadelphia are the most vulnerable to declines, according to a new report.

According to Attom Data Solutions, a real estate data company, housing markets near or in these big cities are at a heightened risk of being affected by a downturn in the housing market.

“The Federal Reserve has promised to be as aggressive as it needs to be in order to get inflation under control, even if its actions lead to a recession,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at ATTOM. In New Jersey and broader New York, counties that are at higher risk include Bergen, Essex, Ocean, Passaic, Sussex, and Union.Part of the reason why these local markets are at higher risk is due to households in these areas shouldering a bigger financial burden, relative to their wages.

Lake County, Ind., which is outside of Chicago, had 19.2% of mortgages underwater, followed by Peoria County, Il., with 17.6% of mortgages.It’s not just the monthly mortgage payments, a homeowner also has to pay home insurance and property taxes, as well as unexpected costs that pop up, from repairs to furnishings.

Six of the top 50 counties with the lowest risk of a decline during a downturn include Davidson, Rutherford, and Williamson counties in Nashville, Tenn. “The ongoing wide disparities in risks throughout the country comes during a time when the U.S. housing market faces headwinds that threaten to slow down or end an 11-year surge in home prices,” Attom stated.

 

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