How to pick the property market bottom

The nation’s residential property market is poised on a knife edge as interest rates continue to rise, auction numbers slide more than 40 per cent on last year and prices tumble from record highs.

Sydney’s property prices have slipped about 10 per cent, or around $118,000 on median-priced homes, surrendering less than half of their gains since the COVID-19 trough to the cyclical peak in January, according to CoreLogic.Melbourne’s property prices, which peaked in February, are down around 6 per cent, or $52,000, which is also less than half the gains over the same period, CoreLogic’s analysis shows.Greater Adelaide is down 0.

Next year’s total payments will be about $58,000, or an increase of nearly $34,000, if the cash rate rises to 3.85 per cent as predicted by Westpac.As an example of clipped borrowing power, a family with two children and combined income of $200,000 before tax will be able to borrow $1.1 million – or around $294,000 less than before the RBA cash rate rises, says RateCity.

As shown in the graphic, the consensus forecast among economists is for the RBA to raise rates for the last time in February, to 3.35 per cent. Tim Lawless, CoreLogic’s research director, says: “We don’t expect housing values to stabilise until rates find a ceiling. The timing of a peak is highly uncertain, but could potentially be as early as late this year or through the first quarter next year.”

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