Big house price falls will set up test for RBA

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OPINION: ANZ says house prices will fall another 11 per cent next year as rate rises put pressure on a significant chunk of the mortgage market.

For someone paid to choose his words incredibly carefully, the apology from Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe for suggesting interest rates were unlikely to rise until 2024 was incredibly clumsy.“certainly sorry if people listen to what we’d said and then acted on that”ANZ forecasts that RBA governor Philip Lowe and the central bank have plenty more work to do to tame inflation.

The bank sees prices falling 7 per cent in calendar 2022 across Australia’s seven capital cities, before falling a further 11 per cent in 2023. ANZ’s house view is that the RBA has plenty more work to do to tame inflation, and tips official interest rates to peak to 3.85 per cent from 2.85 per cent previously.

Fewer than 1 per cent of mortgages are in arrears, households are generally well ahead of their repayments , savings buffers are healthy and unemployment is very low., the combination of surging rates and the looming switch from very low fixed-rate mortgages to variable rates will be seriously painful for a tail of borrowers.

 

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