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How you measure prices also makes a difference. Tal and Judge say the average home price index can be deceiving because it averages all prices and doesn’t take into account the composition of the sales. If more of less expensive units are sold then it can lead to a decline in the index even if prices are rising.
The economists say sellers continue to sit on the sidelines with hardly any signs of distressed selling so far. “The abnormal behaviour of supply this time around has, so far, worked to limit the magnitude of the price decline,” they said.Home sales might be slowing but the rental market has never been tighter, said Tal and Judge. With an estimated 700,000 people coming into Canada this year “demand for rental units is at a record high,” they said.
The CIBC team estimates that about a third of investors in this market were in negative cashflow territory before the pandemic. Those numbers will have swelled as interest rates climb.
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