former more than in the latter. See Graph 8 below, where Canadian housing starts have been moving mostly sideways throughout this year, while U.S. starts have been exhibiting significant declines month to month.
Graph 1 highlights the extent of the coming damage. Total U.S. residential building permits have been cratering for most of 2022. It’s also interesting that while the U.S. as a whole is known for having a larger share of its total starts made up of singles as opposed to multiples, there is currently near equality in units between the two types of residential structures in the Northeast, Midwest, and West, with only the South being an outlier.
In October, the national Case-Shiller index was +9.2% y/y. The 10-City Composite was +8.0% and the 20-City Composite, +8.6%. Not all cities were observing price restraint, especially in Florida. Resales in Miami were +21.0% y/y and in Tampa, +20.5%. But know that there’s one key factor underlying Canadian housing demand, the nation’s remarkable record of population growth. The Q4 2022 over Q4 2021 change in the nation’s total population was +2.3%. To put this in perspective, the comparable y/y figure in the U.S. has been +0.4%.