A commentary by an independent researcher interested in housing supply and demand, and the smart growth of sustainable future-ready cities. He lives in Victoria.
Early last year, the Bank of Canada found that one-fifth of all mortgages since 2014 were by investors, not counting cash or corporate purchases. Another clue. What if you approve 200 homes but can only finish 100 in a year? You are still short. Supply chases demand. The 570,000 additional homes needed in B.C. by 2030, which the CMHC identified in June, was admitted in October to be impossible because of skilled trades shortages. That’s a clue.
RBC estimates the number of new households will keep housing demand high enough to avoid a market crash. Yet more clues.
Prices will continue to climb dramatically as the value of the dollar weakens. btc
Prices af real estate would collapse if we took the foot off the immigration gas pedal. But the lucrative real estate business might not agree.
Notmycircus181 New things are expensive. Therefore new things are bad.
Missing middle hurts affordability, plain and simple.
I doubt that question can be answered. Greater Victoria is a preferred location so there will always be unmet demand for housing. Neverending densification by whatever means won't solve the problem. Also, what is the max population our water supply & infrastructure can support?
This letter has the cart before the horse. One does not need to know what the final number of people who would like to move to an area is in order for the underlying market mechanics to work. Once there is not enough demand to warrant more building, no more building will occur.
Logic is beautiful.
Bringing 500,000 into the country, that need housing now, is madness. We are barely able to keep up with the future housing demand from 375,000 babies born each year.
Isn’t math racist now?