Follow the bouncing rates, if you can.The 2023 year-to-date Freddie low was 6.12% back on Feb. 12. The year-to-date high was 6.73% on March 9.Freddie Mac, by the way, no longer reports borrower points paid on its weekly lender survey.
The Fed’s ideal inflation target rate is 2%. On April 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the year-over-year Consumer Price Index in March was 5%. The cost index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all-items increase, according to its press release. After wiping my crystal ball down with some Windex, I see mortgage rates bouncing around like a pinball machine for the next several months. I also see a recession coming by the fourth quarter. And I see the 30-year mortgage hitting sub-5% with 2 points by Jan. 2024.
As it concerns home purchases in the near term, inventory constraints will buoy any hard price drops. Everybody seems to believe that home prices will come back around even if they drop further.
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