The housing bubble could shift into high gear

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Canada’s real estate may make a comeback soon as April national home sales and prices start to accelerate a hot market

If that happens, sweat beads might form on those home shoppers feeling urgency. National average home values had never had a 25-per-cent correction – until this year. If you blinked, you probably missed it. That’s a problem for the countless Canadians planning to buy during this dip. So what do you do if you’re one of them and the boat has already left the dock?In Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s latest, 26 per cent of homeowners purchased sooner than they expected to beat rising rates.

If average prices rise another 5 per cent, that will tack on an additional $174 a month – or 5 per cent. Other things equal, the more that buyers flood into markets with scant listings, the more that payment risk will be a thing. Is FOMO merely a siren waiting to lure in buyers with a short-term price spike – to mortgage payments many can’t afford? Or is it a valuable instinct that’ll save this year’s buyers from paying even more, as it did in summer of 2020?fundamentals are legit. Record household formation, deficient housing supply, income growth, improving sentiment, and the prospect of falling rates are brewing a bullish concoction.

I hate to say this, with the Bank of Canada trying to deflate the economy and mortgage regulators trying to bolster financial stability, but real estate proponents have a saying: The best time to buy is any time. Well, to those buyers who are well-qualified and risk-tolerant, it is now officially any time.Rate cut cycles are like floating down the Niagara River in a barrel. Everything’s nice and calm and then kerplop, you go off the edge.

 

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