The promise and pitfalls of upzoning and 'missing middle' housing policies

Jurisdictions around the world have followed suit: the Australian state ofThe wheels were set in motion in April when Premier David Eby and Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon announced a provincewide overhaul of municipal zoning rules that will allow three to four units on a traditional single-family detached lot, and even higher density in areas close to transit hubs. Vancouver city council might go even further.

Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy, director of the economic policy centre at the University of Auckland, has studied the impacts of that city’s upzoning policy on housing supply and rents. Greenaway-McGrevy and his co-authors found strong evidence that upzoning stimulated construction: 21,808 additional dwellings were permitted in the five years after the zoning reform, making up approximately four per cent of Auckland’s housing stock.

The question researchers are trying to answer is whether house prices would be even higher in the absence of the policy.Article content “We did find that the increase occurred predominantly for rental units that are affordable to households with higher-than-middle incomes in the short and medium term,” she said.

David Schultz, professor of political science at Hamline University in Saint Paul, Minnesota, said he’s skeptical that upzoning policies alone will make it more affordable to rent or own a home. Vancouver has the highest population density in Canada, with more than 5,700 people per square kilometre, according to Statistics Canada figures. It also has the fourth-highest population density in North America after New York City, San Francisco, and Mexico City.Article content

“I’m fine if some dude makes more money as long as the product that they’re making is available to people closer to the normal income,” he said.Article content But it takes years for housing stock to be developed, Menendian said, which means prices won’t ease off immediately. “These are generational problems.”

“The abundance problem is there aren’t enough homes for everybody and that’s going to drive the prices up into a spiral and we all get stuck in this cruel game of musical chairs,” he said.Article content

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