are rebounding but new listings have fallen to levels not seen since the 1991 recession . Nor is construction filling the gap. The report says housing completions per capita fell to a more than 20-year low in 2022, putting Toronto last among major centres.. An earlier study by CIBC put the number of permanent and non-permanent newcomers to Canada in 2022 at almost one million. More are expected this year, and a third of the total could end up in Toronto.
Rental investors account for 39 per cent of the total condo stock in Toronto, and almost 60 per cent of units built in the past five years. Investor demand then is crucial for housing supply, said the report. “If investors aren’t buying, developers won’t be building.”and higher rents in coming years will lessen the impact on condo investors, but not enough to stop their cash flow situation from getting worse, the report said.
Where it goes from here depends on condo prices and interest rates. Investors may be willing stick it out if they think rising prices will make it worth their while in the long run. “The bigger picture issue is that investors may no longer be able or willing to buy condo presales to the same extent as in the past,” said the authors.
“This raises the risk of reduced new condo demand, new construction activity, deliveries and, ultimately, rental supply. All of this speaks to the need for more purpose-built rental housing.”
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