Mortgage rates: The full pain of this chaos is yet to come

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If the economy was functioning normally, officials would not need to ask firms to temper price rises.

It is now possible, he told me, to stretch terms for some clients, so that the loan term ends when they are aged 80. So that is mortgages lasting four decades. Certainly since 2007, the concept of a term of over 30 years, once a rarity affecting less than a fifth of first time buyers, is right now the norm for more than half of buyers.

A key question is not just why British inflation is stickier than elsewhere, but whether interest rates are heading higher here than similar countries too. After a week of stuck inflation and punchy rate rises both by the Bank of England and in the mortgage markets, an inflation blame game is emerging in what might be seen as something of a monetary muddle.

Indeed in the US, the head of the central bank, Jerome Powell, has repeatedly said that one of the points of raising interest rates, and the prime example for him of how it is working to help drain inflation, is a "correction" in the housing market. This has helped communicate his resolve to financial markets.

In public though, both the Bank and government were united on the anti-inflation mission and approach. More interestingly the chancellor, prime minister and governor all pointed to the rebuilding of profit margins by companies setting and keeping to high prices. There is some mystery and concern that falls in wholesale prices are not being passed on to customers. Supermarkets were pointed to, but there may be more of a problem further up the supply chain.

 

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