has spoken to consider a rise the most likely outcome, with some believing the increase could be as much as 0.5 percentage points which would take rates to a level not seen since early 2001.Experts Willem Buiter, Michael Saunders and Stephen Yiu have made their base-rate predictionsWillem Buiter, a former external member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England and ex-chief economist at CitigroupI expect the Bank of England to raise the bank rate by 0.25 points to 5.
But they will also be sensitive to growth and labour market data, especially pay and unemployment. So far, pay growth has been stronger than expected, and unemployment lower than expected. More of the same could lead them to hike beyond August, or tilt the balance towards a tightening [another rate rise] in August even if inflation is a bit below where it is now.
The question is really about how long rates stay as high as they are – they will want strong evidence that core inflation is coming down before they even think about reducing interest rates.