Hamish McRae says, ‘Should he reveal what he would do if the numbers permit it? Or should he keep schtum?’
To point this out is not to get at the Citi team, but simply to note that forecasting anything at the moment is very difficult. Last August, the Governmentof the various private-sector forecasters and the Citi results for this year were pretty much middle of the pack. But for next year, they were among the gloomiest, expecting the economy to decline by 0.5 per cent. Maybe that will be right, but Mr Hunt has to hope they will be wrong. That gives a clue to what the Chancellor should do.
That is rule two. Should he reveal what he would do if the numbers permit it? Or should he keep schtum? That is a political decision, but my instinct would be to give a clear hint of action without giving away any detail, because I think the chances are that the numbers will look significantly better.And so to rule three. If there is any leeway, he should use it to do what people want: get rid of unpopular taxes.