CMHC's estimate has been upheld as the gold standard of supply targets since it was introduced in 2022. But what if it was wrong?Since it was proposed in 2022, the notion that Canada needs to build 5.8 million new homes by 2030 has been seen as the gold standard of housing targets, informing public policy, populating the headlines, and spurring discussions., argues that the target is based on a “theoretical analysis,” and is an “unrealistic” number that must be rethought.
A key element of said plan is filtering, a process wherein higher income buyers purchase the new and often more expensive homes, leaving their older properties at a lower price for the next income bracket, and so on. Another area of conflict is the behaviour of the housing market itself. There is “considerable friction” within the system, with, and high interest rates weigh on homebuilding. Instead of surging, as would be required to meet the 2030 target, actual housing startsAs well, developers and builders are not inclined to flood the market with excess supply as it could potentially reduce their sales profits.
However, the idea was a “non-starter” when broached with federal leaders — it’s “politically unattractive for obvious reasons,” Pomeroy said. Excess demand on the rental system could be further addressed with a more “carefully managed” process for admitting international students and temporary foreign workers. Commenting on the federal government’sfor the former group, Pomeroy said it would have a “modest effect” over the coming years, rather than an immediate impact.Pomeroy stopped short of providing an estimate of his own for the number of homes Canada will need to restore affordability by 2030.
“The private sector would have seen the market opportunity and we could have done something about it. So what matters more isn't necessarily the number of homes, but having a credible and detailed forecast. Having some kind of long term plan I think would really go a long way. And then we can be more as aggressive on population growth as we want, obviously, within reason.