BNP Paribas Real Estate economist casts doubt on bankers’ predictions for new-home delivery

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Around the Block: This year’s housing output could prove to be a deciding factor in next year’s much-anticipated general election

Minister for Housing Darragh O'Brien will be hoping that the housing estimates from the BPFI and Central Bank of Ireland for 2024 prove to be accurate. Photograph: Collins Photos

But while such predictions might be music to the ears of Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien and his colleagues as they stare down the barrel of the electoral gun that’s pointing in their direction in early 2025, McCartney is more pessimistic in relation to the immediate prospects for housing output.

And as if that wasn’t enough to rain on the Minister for Housing’s parade, he added: “I would also argue that the best guide to completions is not commencements, but the number of dwellings under construction. Because we have been finishing homes faster than we have been starting them, this number has fallen sharply over the last 18 months.

 

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