Federal Reserve is likely to preach patience as consumers and markets look ahead to rate cuts

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Across the United States, many people are eagerly anticipating the Federal Reserve’s first cut to its benchmark interest rate this year: Prospective home buyers hope for lower mortgage rates. Wall Street traders envision higher stock prices. Consumers are looking for a break on credit card debt at record-high interest rates.

FILE - Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during his appearance before the House Financial Services Committee on Capitol Hill, March 6, 2024, in Washington. The Federal Reserve is set this week to leave interest rates unchanged for a fifth straight time.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called “core” prices rose at a monthly pace of 0.4% in both January and February, a pace far higher than is consistent with the Fed’s inflation target. Compared with a year earlier, core prices rose 3.8% in February. Core prices are considered a signal of where inflation is likely headed.

Indeed, several Fed officials have said in recent speeches that they expect inflation to keep declining this year, though likely more slowly than in 2023. The Fed’s benchmark rate stands at about 5.4%, the highest level in 23 years, after a series of 11 rate hikes that were intended to curb the worst inflation in four decades but have also made borrowing much more expensive for consumers and businesses.

 

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