Three charts show why the Trudeau promise of 3.87 million homes is next to impossible

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Trudeau faces two extremely large obstacles in its plan to build housing: labour and capital

by 2031. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. estimates that 1.87 million homes are already going to be built – and Ottawa aims to more than double that pace.773,00 housing starts. But doubling the pace of building, quickly, would almost certainly mean finding hundreds of thousands of new construction workers, immediately. Where’s the plan for that?, an economist who has advised the government on housing, what he thought of the work force challenge.

That’s because Canada’s economy is already heavily tilted to residential real estate. Last year, 8 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product came from homebuilding. That’s double the U.S. level. It’s nearly double the average of countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

“An extra two million homes will require at least an additional $1-trillion in investment,” wrote Mr. Moffatt. “A trillion dollars isn’t exactly easy to come by.” An extraordinarily high share of our national wealth is already invested in housing rather than in productive business assets. In 2022, 37.9 per cent of Canada’sThe logical conclusion is that we can’t build our way to affordability, at least not any time soon. Ottawa has to lean harder on the demand side of the equation. That means significantly reversing the unprecedented spike in the number of temporary residents. Population growth has to come down – way down.

 

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