Migration has been blamed for the housing crisis, but it’s not that simple

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Cutting permanent migration and capping student numbers won’t help much – but experts say it could hurt a whole lot

ABS data shows that the majority of students are in private rentals, rather than homes they own themselves or student accommodation.ABS data shows that the majority of students are in private rentals, rather than homes they own themselves or student accommodation.The government and the opposition have both promised cuts to migration in response, at least partially, to Australia’s housing crisis.

The disconnect only starts during the pandemic, with population and migration first dropping then increasing, even as the number of completions and commencements stays roughly the same.disconnect is due in part to the increased cost of building since the pandemic “This may sound like a small change. But, if for some reason average household size rose back to 2.8, we would need 1.2m fewer dwellings to house our current population – no small difference.”

ABS data showed there were 348,556 people on international student visas at census time in 2021, compared with education department statistics for early 2024 which show 687,840 people studying in Australia on a student visa.Using the proportion of international students who were renting at the 2016 and 2021 censuses to estimate the percentage of the rental market in 2024 would give us a percentage share of 6.8% to 7.2%, quite a bit higher than 4%.

Data from the foreign investment review board shows foreign buyers prefer new dwellings over established ones, and on average, only 1,200 established dwellings are bought by foreign buyers a year.

 

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