Rennie executive cites demographic reasons to build more Vancouver housing

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Andrew Ramlo, vice president of market intelligence at Rennie Group, discussed what he called real estate market myths.

As the local real estate market soared in recent years, experts were divided about why prices kept rising. And now, there is little agreement about what is needed as sales and prices fall.

On Thursday, developers gathered for an industry lunch to hear Andrew Ramlo, vice-president of market intelligence at Rennie Group, talk about what he called real estate market myths, including the notion that “we have more than enough supply to satisfy demand.” Many observers believe the current market downturn is due to the retreat of Chinese money, a range of taxes targeting homes being used as speculative investments, as well as mortgage stress testing aimed at protecting overextended borrowers. Housing starts are projected to fall as weakening demand has some lenders thinking about cutting losses and backing away from financing developers, investors and end-users.

Ramlo added that housing-start numbers do not take into consideration the demolitions that happen in tandem. He estimates that while 23,000 net new housing starts a year are needed in the next decade to accommodate population growth due to immigration and changes such as young people moving out of their parents’ homes, they are set to fall from 24,000 to around 17,000 by 2021.

Ramlo said that while terms such as “affordability” and “availability” have prevailed in the real estate conversation, a new word will be “efficiency” — in reference to the number of baby-boomers who are empty-nesters and now “overhoused” in their single-family homes.jlee-young@postmedia.com

 

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