Rachel Reeves, Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer holds up the Fiscal Plan during the launch of Labour’s general election manifesto
But there is a place to start, one that will be the base on which our next government can build. It is that we, and the other advanced economies, are basically through the twin disasters of the pandemic and the surge in inflation. This gives a stability that we have not had since before the pandemic. Simon French at Panmure Liberum Economics points out that the economic inheritance of the next government is not as bad as is popularly assumed.
Still, it’s a reasonably positive outlook for the housing market. It is also a reasonably positive picture for the job market. Underlying demand for labour continues to be reasonably strong, and if consumers pick up their buying, as seems to be happening, the second half of the year will show solid growth in the economy – which means solid growth in jobs.There are two particular issues here.
. But if we do get a few years of stability, that’s helpful for us too. In a funny way, the problems facing us as individuals are pretty much the same as those facing the government. We all need a following wind.I suppose the most promising element of the outlook for the next government is that there should be a period of relative calm ahead.
It probably would not have made much difference to the outcome, but I do think that had he waited until the autumn, with inflation well below 2 per cent, growth solid, and interest rates falling, he would have had a better pitch to try to sell to the voters.