Elevated levels of inflation – which is currently at a 31-year-high – could also mean that households allocate more of their income to food and gas if wage increases do not keep pace, the central bank said in its annual financial system review.
The bank increased rates by 50-basis-points in April and June and money markets are betting on another half point rise in July. The scenario focused on mortgages with a five-year term taken out at banks in 2020-21, when rates were at record lows. It assumed variable- and fixed-rate mortgages would renew at median rates of 4.4 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively in 2025-26.
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