What Happened to Canada’s Seasonal Housing Cycle?

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Canada's once-predictable annual housing market cycle hasn't been playing along for the past three years. Industry experts weigh in on why that is, and whether or not we can expect a ‘return to normal’. realestate realestatenews Canada housingmarket

As of 2020, 20.2% of Ontario’s housing stock was investor-owned, while in British Columbia, that proportion was 23.3%. The share of detached houses used as an investment was 15% in Ontario, and 16.5% in British Columbia.

“Potential nonseasonal triggers of demand looking ahead may be strong population growth through immigration, first-time homebuyers that have amassed enough savings for a down payment during the housing market downturn, and normalization of rates as expected next year,” she wrote in an email to STOREYS.But Omran cautions against making too much of the breakdown of the pattern — because that pattern is still intact, at least partly.

Omran produced a chart comparing the seasonally adjusted numbers with the non-seasonally adjusted numbers, and indeed, the annual cycle is still there — though with some notable changes.“Looking at the [non-seasonally adjusted data], indeed you do see that over the past couple of years, the typical seasonal cycle, while still partly maintained, is distorted,” Omran wrote.

All of which is to say, there’s no guarantee that this is the new normal. Just as this year’s housing market rebound — with high mortgages rates in place — came as a surprise to many, so too could next year bring fresh surprises.of Ontario-based Butler Mortgage wrote in an email.

 

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