The disaster will have damaging effects that could last for generations, from the immediate potential for loss of life to the thousands of people forced to abandon their homes and farms. It is expected to have a catastrophic impact on the ecology of the region and will sweep mines from the banks of the Dnipro into villages and farmland downstream.
Local Russian authorities in the city of Nova Kakhovka initially denied anything had happened to the dam, then blamed the collapse on Ukrainian shelling. The Interfax news agency quoted an unnamed official from the Kherson emergency services as saying the dam had collapsed from structural weakness under water pressure.
Vladimir Leontiev, the head of the Russian-occupied administration of Nova Kakhovka city, on the southern bank of the Dnipro, initially denied the dam had been blown up, according to the Ria Novosti news agency, but he was later reported to confirm there was “damage” and blame it on shelling. The areas most under threat from flooding are the islands along the course of the Dnipro downstream of Nova Kakhovka and much of the Russian-held left bank in southern Kherson. Earlier modelling of such a disaster suggested Kherson city would not bear the brunt, but the harbour, the docklands and an island in the south of the city are likely to be inundated. It is unclear how many people could lose their homes.