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Home prices could reach peak levels by next year, set new highs in 2026, CMHC report shows

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The CMHC said affordability in the home ownership market will also be a concern for the next three years, as declining mortgage rates and the country’s strongest population growth since the 1950s will likely spur a rebound in home sales and prices

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is forecasting home prices could match peak levels seen in early 2022 by next year and reach new highs by 2026.

“We anticipate by 2025-2026 lower interest rates, continued government support, and policies encouraging greater density in urban centres should make more projects viable.” “During this time, the pool of potential homebuyers grew through robust population growth, increased savings and higher incomes,” the report said.

The agency predicts sales activity from 2025 to 2026 will slightly surpass the past 10-year average but remain below the record levels recorded from 2020 to 2021, due to how expensive housing remains. On a regional basis, the CMHC forecasts Ontario and B.C. will drive the decline in national housing starts this year, warning developers may struggle to boost even apartment construction amid challenges such as financing costs.

 

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